Psephological Phenomena

The study of elections can be fascinating – well to some anyway. Even so, I’d like to thing anyone remotely interested in politics to any degree would find the following of some value. Geoffrey Wheatcroft (writer for The Times and author of the informative book “The Strange Death of Tory England”) is at pains, it seems, to elucidate some electoral facts in almost everything he writes.

I’d like to summarise his message and add to it below:

In 1997, the so-called Labour landslide, Blair got fewer votes (majority of around 150) than the Conservatives in 1992 (majority of around 10).

In 2001, Labour got fewer votes than Neil Kinnock got in 1992.

In 2005, Labour got fewer votes than the Tory defeat in 1997.

In 2005, the Lib Dems got fewer votes than they did in 1992, yet tripled their MPs to 62.


The conclusion: the electoral system needs serious revision given the most dramatic collapse in voter turn out in the entire history of British democracy.

In short, out of 10 people in the electorate, 4 do not vote. Roughly 2 vote Labour, 2 vote Conservative, 1 for the Lib Dems and 1 for Other. Blair got 35% of the popular vote in 2005 on a turn out of 60%. This is the lowest share of the vote of any governing party to have achieved since party politics began.

A simple multiplication exercise indicates that roughly 80% of the electorate did NOT want Blair in 2005, yet he still gained a majority of 66 – enhancing the illusion that Labour is popular and the country wants Blair policy.